The Bible contains numerous messianic prophecies. What is the probability that these prophecies could have been fulfilled in the person of Jesus Christ?
The Bible is the sacred book of Christians, consisting of the Old and New Testament. The Old Testament, known in Hebrew as the Tanakh, is also the holy book of Judaism. However, many other groups regard the Bible as, at best, a controversial book or, at worst, a fictional text written solely to control ignorant people (despite the lack of scientific evidence to support this claim). For this reason, it is often considered unreliable.
How many prophecies are in the Bible?
Biblical prophecies, messages from God or His prophets predicting future events, are often regarded as unreliable. The reasoning is simple: if God does not exist, then predicting the future should be impossible. Nonetheless, a significant number of these prophecies have been fulfilled with remarkable precision. According to Hugh Ross, an astrophysicist and Christian apologist, the Bible includes around 2,500 individual prophecies.1 Notably, many of these prophecies are expressed directly and do not require significant interpretation.
Among the prophecies in the Bible, those related to the foretold Messiah are particularly notable. The Bible contains hundreds of messianic prophecies. Alfred Edersheim, a 19th-century biblical scholar from Oxford University, listed as many as 456 messianic prophecies from the Old Testament in his work The Life and Times of Jesus the Messiah.2 The scholar concluded that all of these prophecies were fulfilled in one person: Jesus Christ!
If the Bible is not a divinely inspired text, how can the fulfillment of these prophecies be explained, particularly within the life of a single individual? Could this be a sophisticated ancient forgery? This is impossible, as the discovery of the Dead Sea Scrolls proves that these verses were known before the advent of Christianity.3 In other words, these predictions existed before anyone knew about Jesus of Nazareth, the son of Joseph and Mary. Yet all these prophecies appear to have been fulfilled in Him, which strongly suggests that they cannot be dismissed lightly.
The probability of Messianic prophecies being fulfilled in one person
We can approach this issue through the framework of probability theory. What is the likelihood that all of these prophecies could be fulfilled in a single individual, specifically Jesus Christ? To be more precise, let us examine five Messianic prophecies, the ways in which they were fulfilled in Christ, and the cumulative probability of their fulfillment in Him.
1. The Messiah’s place of birth
‘But you, Bethlehem Ephrathah, though you are small among the clans[a] of Judah, out of you will come for me one who will be ruler over Israel, whose origins are from of old, from ancient times’ (Micah 5:2).
The prophet Micah, who lived around 700 BCE, predicted that the Messiah would be born in the Judean town of Bethlehem. This event did in fact occur, as Jesus Christ was born in this town near Jerusalem. Scholars have proposed various estimates for the likelihood of this prophecy being fulfilled. Following the approach of Alfred Palla,4 we assume a probability of 1 in 1,000 (1:10³).
2. A man preceding the Messiah
‘I will send my messenger, who will prepare the way before me. Then suddenly the Lord you are seeking will come to his temple; the messenger of the covenant, whom you desire, will come, says the Lord Almighty’ (Malachi 3:1).
In the Bible, the Hebrew word translated as ‘angel’ also means ‘messenger’, which could refer to a human being. The Bible describes only one man who considered himself to be preparing the way for someone greater than himself. The Gospels report that this man was John the Baptist, who preceded none other than Jesus Christ. It is also worth noting that the prophet Malachi, who recorded this prophecy, lived in the 5th century BCE. Peter Stoner5 estimates the probability of this prophecy being fulfilled at 1 in 1,000 (1:10³).
3. The value of the Messiah’s life
‘I told them, “If you think it best, give me my pay; but if not, keep it.” So they paid me thirty pieces of silver. And the Lord said to me, “Throw it to the potter”—the handsome price at which they valued me! So I took the thirty pieces of silver and threw them to the potter at the house of the Lord’ (Zechariah 11:12-13).
In this prophecy from Zechariah, who lived approximately 400 years before Christ, it is said that the price at which the Lord was valued was thirty pieces of silver. This is the exact amount Judas received to betray Jesus to the chief priests. Moreover, according to the prophecy, these thirty pieces were to be given to the potter. According to the Gospel of Matthew 27:5-7, the priests used this money to buy a potter’s field. In verse 9, the evangelist pointed out that this prophecy was fulfilled in Christ. Given the specific amount and its subsequent use, Palla6 estimates the probability of this prophecy being fulfilled at 1 in 1,000,000 (1:10⁶).
4. The circumstances of the Messiah’s execution
‘Dogs surround me, a pack of villains encircles me; they pierce my hands and my feet. All my bones are on display; people stare and gloat over me. They divide my clothes among them and cast lots for my garment’ (Psalm 22:16-18).
Here, we find another double prophecy authored by King David (a distant ancestor of the Messiah, according to another prophecy). The subject states, ‘they pierced my hands and my feet’. Around 1,000 BCE, during King David’s time, crucifixion was not yet a known method of execution. Interestingly, this prophecy is reiterated about 500 years later in Zechariah (see Zechariah 12:10).
Furthermore, verse 18 describes the executioners dividing up the condemned man’s clothes but casting lots for his tunic. According to the Gospel of John 19:23-24, the soldiers divided Christ’s clothes among themselves but cast lots for His tunic because it was woven in one piece. Palla7 estimates the probability of the Messiah’s death by crucifixion at 1 in 100,000 (1:10⁵) and the probability of the lot-casting for His garments at the same figure. Multiplying these probabilities yields a result of 1 in 10 billion (1:10¹⁰).
5. The Messiah condemned amid His innocence
‘He was oppressed and afflicted, yet he did not open his mouth; he was led like a lamb to the slaughter, and as a sheep before its shearers is silent, so he did not open his mouth. […] Therefore I will give him a portion among the great, and he will divide the spoils with the strong, because he poured out his life unto death and was numbered with the transgressors’ (Isaiah 53:7,12).
This is another double prophecy. Isaiah, a prophet who lived in the 8th century BCE, speaks in chapter 53 of a condemned man who did not open his mouth to defend himself during interrogation. Very few people endure insults and the pain of torture in silence. Christ, when brought before authorities, never spoke in His own defense, only speaking when absolutely necessary. According to the Gospel of Luke 23:6-12, Jesus did not utter a word before Herod.
The text also states that the Messiah was numbered among transgressors. This prophecy was also fulfilled literally, as Christ was crucified between two criminals. Palla8 estimates the probability of this double prophecy being fulfilled at 1 in 100,000 (1:10⁵).
Cumulative probability
We have examined five prophecies and assigned each a plausible (though not necessarily 100% accurate) probability of being fulfilled by any individual in history. By multiplying all the individual probabilities, we arrive at a cumulative probability of 1 in 10²⁷. To visualize this, it is equivalent to 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 – a quintillion!
It is worth noting that we have only considered five Messianic prophecies out of the 456 listed by Edersheim, all of which are also believed to have been perfectly fulfilled in the life of Jesus Christ. What, then, is the probability of all of them being fulfilled? It is difficult to view this as mere coincidence!
Jesus Christ as the Messiah
Thus, the Bible is no ordinary book, and Jesus Christ was no ordinary man. Indeed, the entire Bible is dedicated, in one way or another, to the coming of the foretold Messiah. No other ancient book contains such detailed predictions that found equally detailed fulfillment in the life of a single person. Christ was and is the most extraordinary figure in the history of our world. Therefore, it is worth examining the Gospels for insights into the life of Jesus Christ and His love-filled message for humanity.
By the way, we recommend reading the articles:
- Doom or Salvation – What Future Awaits Us?
- The Mystery of Jawed Vertebrates
- The Evolutionary Roots of Racism
- Ants: Complex Creatures
- Did God Create Parasites?
Footnotes
- Ross, H., 2003. Fulfilled Prophecy: Evidence for the Reliability of the Bible. Reasons to Believe. Available at: https://reasons.org/explore/publications/articles/fulfilled-prophecy-evidence-for-the-reliability-of-the-bible.
- Edersheim, A., 1883. The Life and Times of Jesus the Messiah, vols 1–2. Peabody, Massachusetts: Hendrickson, pp. 163, 710–741.
- Palla, A., 2002. Sekrety Biblii. Wyd. Betezda, p. 269.
- Palla, A., 2002. Sekrety Biblii. Wyd. Betezda, p. 270.
- Reagan, D.R., n.d. Applying the Science of Probability to the Scriptures. Lamb & Lion Ministries. Available at: https://christinprophecy.org/articles/applying-the-science-of-probability-to-the-scriptures/.
- Palla, A., 2002. Sekrety Biblii. Wyd. Betezda, p. 271.
- Palla, A., 2002. Sekrety Biblii. Wyd. Betezda, pp. 271–272.
- Palla, A., 2002. Sekrety Biblii. Wyd. Betezda, p. 272.
© Source of main image: Canva.
The portal EvolutionOfThinking.org, created by the Research and Education Institute, focuses on education and the dissemination of knowledge related to research on various aspects of human well-being.
